Alternative Metrics, page-2702

It’s going to be an interesting dynamic.

Afterpay’s 3 major markets, US, Australia and UK are all targeting stimulus to the worker.

UK giving all unemployed workers 80% of full time pay.

US talking $2trillion in stimulus, targeted at the worker, with Chuck Shumer saying it’s going to be unemployment benefits on steroids.

We’ll see what Morrison comes out with but talking 10% of GDP.

So the dynamic is this:
1) people are likely to be quarantined and not able to spend their money at cafes and restaurants (not an Afterpay market), not going to spend money on holidays and events (not really an Afterpay market) but will still be able to do online shopping (Afterpay market).

2) so the governments are basically going to give people money and time with very little to do except online activities

3) Shopify in the US, an ecommerce platform, was up 4% despite S&P500 -4%. Tells you what the market is thinking about online shopping

4) the bad debts thing will be interesting to track, but you can make an argument here that with free government money being driven to Afterpay’s primary channels that if anything, Afterpay may actually be a beneficiary of al this. Not saying that as a cast iron guarantee, but it’s a scenario. Certainly just as plausible a scenario as Afterpay going out of business.