Ann: Investor Presentation FY2020 H1, page-25

I can't see any weak links in this either. However, these are extremely turbulent times. Lumibird could perhaps declare a force majeure. France is a civil law country, where such a declaration is perhaps easier than in common law jurisdictions. It could also simply refuse to pay, and Ellex may choose to seek enforcement. I'm not sure in which jurisdiction the parties have agreed that would take place, and what the costs and risks that might present are.

Lumibird's value has fallen such that this transaction now represents 40% of their market cap, up from a little over 20% earlier. The decline in the AUD relative to EUR will be offsetting some of this. I presume they had the finance already irrevocably secured before inking the deal, but similar things could also go wrong there too.

However, on balance, I don't see these scenarios are very likely. The market is obviously pricing in a pretty large chance of it happening, but then the market has taken the wrong meds this month... Who knows!

I'm curious about the EGM that is supposed to be held for ELX shareholder approval however. I don't think there has been any correspondence about this, and yet it was scheduled for late March. Can anyone shed some light on this? Could a lack of news on this point foreshadow a potential problem? It's going to be hard to hold a meeting now too... I wonder if Lumibird could call the deal off because ELX failed to gain shareholder approval (because it couldn't hold a meeting, because of Covid-19 lockdown provisions in Australia)...