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TheSpaniard

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28/03/20

01:39

Post #: 43744731
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Originally posted by Bullspike: ↑

Yes and sadly the deflating has a long way to go. Personally I think this crash is going to be prolonged and really nasty. Fuel to the fire is the fact we had some underlying economic weakness before corona. The lockdowns are going to have an absolutely catastrophic effect on macro economics. The lost GDP will be huge. Property hasn't got a mention yet but it certainly will. Many listed companies may go bankrupt which is why cheap now is very dangerous, more so than 2008 due to the lockdown.

Looking at the XAO chart, when we see such a ripping down leg on massive volume associated with a macro-economic event, it's no longer a simple deep pullback. When I initially got into charting, I (erroneously) didn't appreciate the extent of these significant chart patterns. Moves like this convey a lot of meaning in terms of economic fundamentals. Likewise when gold broke out of it's multi-year wedge pattern. i.e. A breakout of a one-minute wedge is nothing significant, apart from the context of those immediate few mins / hours. A breakout of multiyear resistance means a ton; new macros for that commodity / whatever.

Each crash is unique; chart is for interest only. Of note is the 1929 bull run from approx day 50 to 150. Many people jumping in (and fair enough) and then boom down she goes again. Same with 2008, a bottom appears to form from day 130..and boom another leg down.

However an opportunity presents, for those fortunate enough to take advantage, just have to careful with timing. But sadly this could be really bad.

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Yep, by those measures there is another 15-25% to go, and I think that looks right when all the sh*t numbers roll in for Q1 and especially Q2.

Last edited by TheSpaniard: 28/03/20
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0 Great analysis

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Top Stories

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Metals Australia kicking off plant study at Lac Carheil; Canadian tariff tailwind potential

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