@madamswer@Klogg@MarsC@stayer
People don't know how to analyse the data- including the people advising some governments. Within 2 weeks now, the data will not lie- it is already bearing out the truth. The market has not figured it out yet, although the smart money has.
1. The data reflects actions taken weeks ago and reflects real decisions taken by real people.
2. As with all epidemics, there are two waves- the first was from Wuhan, and the second was from community transmission in Italy which was not picked up.
3. Places which shut borders to China quickly did not have much of a first wave.
Now, the disease causes hospitalisation in somewhere between 5-10% of people. The findings (bilateral interstitial pneumonia) are diagnostic. Hospitals worldwide noticed as soon as 100-1000 cases in a particular region were affected, but this only occurs at day 10 of the epidemic.
Italy got swamped, because it had direct flights from Wuhan that were not ceased in time, due to ties with its fashion industry. Other places did not. The subsequent travel from Italy, has seeded epidemics around the world, and consequently, Europe has suffered the most, then the US and Australia/New Zealand the least. This is in reality what has happened. Now people saying this is not that severe are wrong- the lag to deaths, mean that the fatality rate of 1% is actually very high. I strongly suspect that the places with higher fatality rates (esp Spain and Italy) was due to combination of widespread transmission within hospitals (ie infecting already sick patients) + inadequate testing.
The other thing that the data bears out is that public health works. The most effective intervention is in fact testing and the places that have tested the best have the best outcomes. Quarantine works, and is necessary once case numbers exceed testing and contact tracing thresholds- governments have on the whole done the right thing here, but in some places it has been too late. The only missing bit of information was what the government response would be, ad there has been synchronised confirmed fiscal stimulus (again, the right thing to do). So we are now moving from a paradigm of trickle down economics to a Keynesian reality, due to exogenous forces.
As the realisation that the only way this is paid off in the long term is inflation, people are going to start looking at their cash holdings and realise that equities are the safest place to be. In particular, we have documented proof that Australia and New Zealand will be least affected (by chance of geography + very coordinated early action). Fiscal stimulus will work, as, with the wars, there is a huge need for economic productivity to meet the demands of tackling this virus. Ie there are obvious places where money will have to be spent. So in Australia, we have one of the most skilled, most diverse countries in the world, with what will be the least affected country, and we have had to date one of the worst affected sharemarkets.
When the people managing money in Australia wake up to the prospect of sitting on cash with the prospect of inflation, we are going to be in for a nice ride. I am set.
