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$66.47 afterpay limited

Global consumer default wave is just getting started, page-19

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nelsonjm

90 Posts.

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30/03/20

18:10

Post #: 43781347
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Originally posted by Drambuie: ↑

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/capital-preservation-afterpay-in-focus

"Our bad scenario makes the following assumptions:40% of existing customers across the group default between April and August 2020, with intensity peaking around May and June;Late fees are cancelled between April and August 2020 as a gesture of goodwill, resulting in zero late fee revenue in the period of maximum bad debt stress;In 2H20 we assume the business is split roughly 50% ANZ, 45% US, and 5% UK which guides are assumptions on the average merchant fee (3.85%) and processing costs (i.e., -1.2%)."

"With a strong return on capital from repeat, repaying customers, a ‘bad scenario’ year which sees 40% of existing customers default in a five month window results in a total return of -30% on the receivables invested capital. If only 30% of customers defaulted in the same period, return on receivables capital improves to -7%.In a normal year, with customer defaults in line with historic trends, return on capital exceeds 30%. If we assume one ‘bad year’ for every seven, Afterpay’s receivables book stands to generate in excess of 20%+ return on capital for a full cycle. We believe this full-cycle return on capital for the receivables book and global network-effect growth opportunity remains a compelling opportunity for long-term investors. As long as the business is sufficiently capitalised to survive the challenging years ahead, the business will continue to thrive thereafter."

-Unless you have something conducive to add to this, take your pessimism elsewhere, OP.

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I've posted that link in the past but just keep in mind that article is heavily biased given the author is a fund manager who's obviously invested his client's money in APT. So read it with a pinch of salt. Still some decent analysis of financials in there though.

APT Price at posting: $18.40 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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