Before I get started, I do expect the details to come out in broker reports. I’ve got some of my own numbers I’ll share in due course.
Ash, I really enjoy your posts on the IFN board.
I very much disagree with your contributions here, though. There are mute functions here if anyone is tired of your opinion, so never feel like you can’t share. Even if…you were maybe getting a little repetitive about non-issues and hundreds of millions out on some of your predictions.
Our asset owner status on the hydro project was always intended to be the case. In all of Simon’s interviews, he has stated his interest in locking in long-term PPA’s or revenue agreements to ensure he can pay shareholder dividends. If you’ve ever spoken to him personally, or have heard him speak on the issue, you can safely say that he is truly altruistic in this sense, and he prefers low-risk long-term agreements.
I’d be shocked if EnergyAustralia didn’t make offers for the entire kit over the next 30 odd years. Gains do not just accrue to EA at all. GNX has ensured a plump annual return to offset the 10-year guarantee. This is enough to ensure NAIF can tick us off. Should the asset be as critical to the Queensland grid, as intended, and EA decides to buy it, then GNX is guaranteed 30 years of annual payments that escalate over time and then a massive payout at the end. I think GNX holders can live with that, Ash.
KS1 is cashflow positive and will pay itself off by PPA very quickly. Jemalong is a minor risk, but I back our ability to get a break-even PPA if things go south in NSW. We’ve negotiated excellent finance here so we have more than enough time to make the right call.
GNX is up in a brutal market. Institutions aren’t buying. Although, I have flagged a few interesting swaps over the last few weeks of around 5 million shares. You know very well, Ash, that ‘smart money’ have been milking easy sellers and triggering stop-losses for a good month now, with little resistance. It is very easy to quietly accumulate.
However, look at the date of my celebratory video, whereas smart money last week when a minimum 122% ROI was clear as day? Everyone is hurting. Some will wait for the shovels, and fair enough.
Your sentiment has been sell the entire time, Ash. I’m a details guy, sorry
I appreciate the financial advice has come from a good place but that’s a personal decision for every holder. If I’ve got 1,000,000 shares at the ATH of $0.38then I’m crystalising a hard loss on the back of company-making news. If I've got 1,000,000 shares at the ATL of $0.08 then I’m holding shares that may pay significant dividends to me and my family for the next 80 years +, as well as appreciating in value
Yes, wind first, as you’ve stated. I mentioned why, above. An abundance of solar combined with very impressive wind feasibility results. Also, our Jemalongpanels are secure, but getting our usual panels may present a problem, so wind makes the most sense given the supplier. Never doubt the good PR story of ‘co-located solar, wind and pumped hydro’. Look how far we rode the green bonds finance story and that was the most boring piece of news I’ve ever read, but it turned heads. I can get money anywhere. But these shares were built on years of belief, research and a passion for pumped hydro. I’m a holder of the first pumped hydro project in Australia in 40 odd years. I’m a holder in a company that genuinely looks forward to returning the faith of its shareholders, and Simon has reiterated today their dividend plan has been put in front of NAIF. He really is one of the good guys.
I’m also well aware that Kidston and Jemalong are just the beginning. I can’t wait to see this rolling, and see where we go next. Time for an (alcoholic ginger) beer.
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