After the 3 amigos set up the business, David Thodey turned himself into an ASX hero by paying out every dollar of profit (and some) as dividends to mums and dads. What a great guy.
Precious little was done on capital management/debt reduction/business growth when the rivers of 3G then 4G gold were running.
Penn inherited a poison pill and really has not been the guy to stop the bleeding. To presume current management are responsible for the current predicament is quite naive.
TLS is a trading stock not a buy and hold, always has been. When mum and dad get in, time to get out and vice versa. Viewed from this perspective it has been a cyclical gift that has kept on giving for 15 years ever since T2, and until the lights go out thanks to NBN.
But there's the silver cloud, NBN will not make a cent before it is sold into TLS InfraCo, for next to nothing. It will be a regulated entity (just like the old Telstra was) generating a regulated return. Boring but profitable when capital costs have been essentially written off.
In this future, around 2-4 years out when the Aust Govt wants to reduce its size again, the combined value of InfraCo and TLS will be significantly higher than the the currently merged TLS business.
There is no rush to get in as markets and confidence are going nowhere for 2 years. Any entry point lower than $2.80 will probably be a good one for the next up leg, watch out for it. The best sign will be when the dividend is cut to 10c - 12c. Just watch the SP tumble then, it will be an historic capitulation.
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