We're going around in circles. No the deaths have not peaked. The daily rate appears to have peaked. You'll find there were yet another 760 or so deaths yesterday. Deaths keep rising substantially - another 4000 or so in the last 5 days.
The lockdown is not sustainable, as will become obvious soon. It's not necessary: Sweden isn't following it, yet its death rates are not very different to Denmark's, next door.
Not sure what you mean by sustainable. Denmark had 19 deaths yesterday for a total of 123. 3,386 new cases. Sweden 69 deaths for total of 308 and quickly rising. 5,568 new cases. Finland 2 deaths, 19 in total, 72 new cases. Norway 6 deaths, 50 in total, 270 new cases. Sweden has MORE deaths already than those other 3 countries combined. Sweden is on the steep incline. Going to get messy. A clear difference all because Sweden chose to stay open. Their government is slowly swaying - gathering now limited to 50 - avoid visiting relatives, social distancing measures. People over age 70 self-isolate. Seem familiar? They will go down the same path, they will have no choice. Their economy is being stifled anyway and their unemployment queues are increasing In other words they are substantially risking lives but will go down the path of economic pain anyway.
The problem with the eradication strategy governments seem to be following is that there will be outbreaks of coronavirus again and again (that is, if you believe that less than 1% of the population is positive), necessitating further lockdowns.
I see mass deaths and loss of the health system a much bigger problem. Once this primary wave is over, with continued surveillance it is possible that future outbreaks will be controllable thereby not overloading the health system. We don't really know and pretending we do is folly. That's the balancing act most countries are working on. I don't know what percentage of population is positive, we will never know because everyone will never be tested. We'll get over the economic pain we're humans that's what we do. You can't bring back truckloads of dead people.
The truth is more like what the Oxford study suggests. For the current government strategies to be shown up as worthless, we don't have to believe the upper range of 50% having been infected. 10% is sufficient to make the lockdown a huge error.
No that's your truth. How does an opinion make it the truth? I really don't understand the significance of your 50% versus 10% argument. If 10% or 50% get it and health system loses control that's a huge number of deaths. Just ask Italy, Spain and the king of all monumental stuff-ups, the US.
