@Doz you seem to think my estimates of $600k quarterly cash-burn does not take into account revenues from Spark. This is incorrect and I will further validate my numbers. Feel free to provide a contrarian view with supporting evidence.
From the last quarterly:
View attachment 2082808
The receipts are highlighted above. To establish cash burn, I took Net Cash -464k and then backed out the Governments Grants, as this is a one-off annual payment and not representative of a normal quarter.
This gives an adjusted figure of -1177k for 6 months or -588.5k per quarter. I used $600k as a quick estimate.
So what can we expect for the next Quarter?
1. Spark VM will contribute very little. As at time of posting, there are under 1000 downloads in Google Play. How many of these subscribed?
2. Further, many posters here have said, Spark cannot ramp up marketing with a Call Centre off-line in Manilla. This is a lame excuse. But let's run with it.
3. The virus will still be affecting businesses in NZ or Philippines or AU in the June Quarter. As such, I believe businesses will concentrate on trying to maintain 'business as usual' as best as possible and should the virus situation improve, businesses will be scrambling to get back to pre-virus state. As such, I do not see new deals and with tight cash/credit, I do not see upfront payments.
4. Trade Receivables in AR19 of $420k are close to the Cash Receipts in the next 6 months of $411.
View attachment 2082841
5. The HY from 12/31 showed Trade Receivable of $214k. I would expect the bulk of these to be received in the second half of the FY; that is, show up as Cash Receipts in March and June Quarters.
View attachment 2082850
Conclusion:
1. $214k in Trade Receivables owing to NOR is less than half the receivables in the preceding period.
2. I doubt Spark VM will make up the difference based on under 1000 downloads in Play thus far and the virus affecting the June Quarter.
3. As such, my cash burn of $600k is kind to NOR as I think Cash Receipts will be lower in the 2nd half than the first half.
4. Placement capacity and assuming a discount placement to the current SP, as per every recent placement, shows NOR unable to raise less than $400k (see previous post for placement capacity calcs).
5. Based on an Quick Asset Ratio/Acid Test of 0.4 and lower R&D expenditure, will Radium have an appetite to increase the loan facility?
As such, I struggle to see NOR surviving beyond this Quarter. Every bubble finds its pin. For NOR the pin seems to be the virus, as it will be for many micro-cap stocks.
All imo.
