my 2 bob here
interesting juncture
2120 was my top line in the sand to risk my holdings from the low on the spx of 666 during GFC. it hit it and then some. next target was 2800 level which it hit and then kept going. As Tanotfa said awhile back the top level was just over 3400 spx which was a gain of 5 times the low of 666.
I always wondered over the 10 years of so i tracked the recovery whether the high would be the opposite of the evil 666 number. well Wall Street did it again and gave us a high of 3393. I am not into numbers but out of interest I googled it. it comes up as an Angels number. There was a lot more on it if anyone wants to google it.
anyway when you trace it as a count from that rise from the 2120 level to 3393 it gives a range of 1273 pips
it retraced virtually all that range on the recent spike down which gave me a certain satisfaction to see 2120 hold. i skipped the banks over the last few years as i could always see more risk to gain. macquarie was a good buy a few weeks ago. they are smarter than our govt and the banks combined.
now the spx has retraced close to 50% of that fall 1273 pips so it has run up to 2756 which is a gain of 636 pips. in fact it is almost dead on 50% and out by just 1 pip. it is amazing how it works.
for those who follow the count we have a 50% recovery of the recent losses. that is about right on a risk reward basis for those who risked life and limb at 2120 to now take profits
it does not mean it fails here. it may shoot through but on a risk to reward basis we are on the wrong side of the 50% recovery. the simple way to play it is sit back and let it play itself out. if it shoots through it is likely to back test this level anyway. if it falls back then locking in profits from the low is never a problem
when the gfc happened and it hit 666 we saw it hit the next level on the count of 1050. it overshot it to over 1100 before it backtested successfully from 1050 and just kept going up and up and up through all levels.
the spx has now overshot its fib levels here all the way back from 3400 down through 2800 support and the old support of 2100 held but it is all still open territory from here.
enough of my meaningless fascination with numbers the reality is uranium finally poked its nose back up and saw dyl double from its recent lows. uranium may now backtest but we can see as the covid recovers then there are gains to be had.
copper fell back to its old low.
gold has spiked beautifully on the dow falling.
if, as i hope, the dow has finally ended its 10 plus year run on QE and money being pumped in we may see gold safe haven continue
for those who have heard my fascination with sequencing before I apologise but did you see the US Bonds spike as safe money flowed in then the $US spike to over the dollar level then gold spike and then goldies and then the base metals.it happened clearly on the weekly chart and then again on a micro level
the sequence was spikes in bonds then gold then goldies and the rest.
I think GJ and also Bundy pointed out gold recovered first after GFC which is happening here again. this is my alchemy of turning lead into gold. the magic formula. it seems to work in safe haven situations like the gfc and here before it evens out
Gold has been seasonal for awhile now. we had the usual run up from Dec 19 and then the spike in Feb/March. it normally churns until July. the spike over the last week or so is unusual but still good. it seems to happen some years and if spx is finally under enough pressure it may just be sustained. but a formula is a formula
nst has a double top in place and heading for a triple top here if it gets there. from 10c days and then 66c days it really does not matter. it is over $10 now which was always my target area. that is where I am hoping we end up with some of the new breed but the next nst seems few and far between in recent years.
I enjoy reading all the posts
3500 if you google the gold standard when it came in (around 1887) you will see gold then did not move an inch until the standard eased 50 years later. back then it was the USA which held all the gold production and gold reserves. now, (as i think you said), it is Australia with loads of gold and China which is the biggest producer. i said last year the massive gains in ASX goldies has already been given over recent years. we may well see some of the laggards run now like oku and alk but i bet Buffett is focusing here on beaten down money earnings. jb hi fi is still earning money but it will get taken down like everything else if the dow fails. commodities fell for 20 years when the gold standard came in. trump is a big fan of the gold standard. i cant see it happening but who knows. (i love the way trump took on the who (World Health Organisation) exactly what we noticed. love him or hate him he calls a spade a spade except, of course, when it clashes against his interests! i watched one special and i cant really believe what i saw but as usual i cant say what i want but he can).
adt is recovering today.
sto made an announcement about covid that it needs oil at $25 a barrel to stay cash flow positive. we saw it touch its old sub $3 level as oil hit sub $20 a barrel. sto is one i intend to accumulate for better times but for those who think it is all a recovery from here well look at the sto chart. it has not even recovered 50% of its falls. good on sto for announcing what was its cut off point. for those who follow commods you will see a lot of bargains open up as commods struggle here
it is similar to ncm from it fell from $40 to sub $20 . peeps announced it would not fall below $14. well it did and it halved from there to $7 which shows what can happen. the gfc saw a series of waterfalls with recoveries interspersed with more falls. overall it was red longer term.
hopefully it is all roses from here but we will see
there are some ASX stocks with news due but I will leave others to follow them. i am quite enjoying my quiet time and mainly just want to wish everyone well and safe
(20min delay)