No argument with your figures PS, however obviously all projections are based on certain assumptions.
For comparison it is worth having a look at the MST Access report referenced by Supercat and Georgia on other threads.
This project obviously has a long lead time and MST estimate a start date of 09/2027! Obviously this creates an issue in regard to the corporate costs of running FMS which will result in ongoing CR's to fund.
The end result is (and important for calculations), they estimate FMS will have approx
5b shares on issues by the times of production.
MST have provided figures which indicate a Div payable of approx 6cps based on mining option (full production). They have used 50WMT giving 45 DMT with a slightly lower US price and lower exchange rate. This results in PIOP having gross revenue just under $4b in first couple years full production.
Only limited comments were made on the royalty option and using their figures the royalty would be slightly less than yours (approx just under 2cps), however your comments re value based on royalty are still valid.
(I am still trying to get my head around the graphs they have provided in regard cash flow for both mining option and royalty option - the actual figures much easier to understand)
Obviously Dividends are a long way down the track, however along with future cash flow projections at least give us valuations models.
MST have calculated an equity valuation for the mining option of $1,002m or 29cps and $301m or 9cps for the royalty options. (Georgia has posted up copies of these valuation tables previously)
These type of NPV calculations are what will drive the SP in the short term and there are a couple of catalysts which should help SP appreciate.
Obviously price is depressed at the present time due to ann'd delays which means we are currently in limbo along with a general market malaise. I suspect CV19 is a handy scapegoat for any delays although I do accept there would be uncertainty in capital markets. (Little doubt this also gives more power to those with capital
)
In normal circumstances you would expect the market to start looking at what reserves have already been ann'd and placing a value on FMS based on those now that an infrastructure deal is done. This theoretically should see a higher value attributed based on known reserves and should be higher than current.
Obviously the next big catalyst will be the BFS (& FID as they will no doubt happen the same time) which will confirm tonnages, mine life etc etc which should again re rate the company.
Obviously then we will see a period of actual development which could also see some excitement in the market and finally production stage where SP can be based on a working mine, dividends, current market conditions etc.
I am concerned about ongoing delays and as I have said before the need to raise capital at these depressed prices with some minority holders reluctant to support (fair enough - with good reason) which will give our majority holders easy ownership increases.
A much more positive outlook may reflect in an improved Sp and support from all holders, although, perhaps it will be important to have some fresh holders who aren't looking over their shoulders at every move
Dividends also are a long way off and I think many will be looking to these (progress) catalysts as opportunities to exit the Company.
Certainly the recently published NPV's are a good starting point and may give some an idea of what they might expect without having to hold until death us do part.................................
Out of interest I attach a graph from MST-Access showing estimated revenue, Opex and EBITDA for PIOP (Presumably much of this modelling would be similar to what FMS were reluctant to release prior to vote?
):-
View attachment 2100193All above just my opinion with reference to stated reports.
Any inaccuracies and mistakes are unintentional and most probably due to too much Easter chocolate
(20min delay)