ETM 4.35% 2.4¢ energy transition minerals ltd

Is this mine every gonna be built?, page-220

  1. 164 Posts.
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    I still don't get it.
    There are plenty of frauds and lifestyle companies on the ASX to dig into on the ASX. GGG just doesn't have that look and smell to it.
    Your questions of fact that have already been addressed in company disclosures or on judgement and interpretation which are unanswerable seems disproportionate to me.
    Isn't this investment simple? The 2016 FS with updates since then seems to point to a pre-tax IRR over 50%, which seems as good as anything else in the world in any commodity globally. Comparable companies seem to be Nexgen in Uranium (Arrow), Ivanhoe in Copper (Kakula-Kamoa), Nova in Gold (Donlan). All of which are worth between $0.5-$3b, today depending on whether they are still planning or building a mine. All have some kind of risks to jurisdiction and execution. If GGG get an approval to mine in a country that admittedly, is new to this, but has a desire to grow beyond a fishing and welfare economy, plus finance from one of many possible suitors (acknowledging capital markets are on pause, but interest rates are for now suppressed near 0) it's a many x multi-bagger on a 0.5x pre- Dev NPV basis. If they don't the stock probably gets cut in half, they'll dilute and try again in two years.
    You debate peripheral details on what appears a setup with two key variables which should be resolved within 12-18 months (within the current cash runway).
    At the macro level what am I missing that you see to cause you such concern?
    I am genuinely keen to hear a bear case.
 
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