VRL 0.00% $3.00 village roadshow limited

Ann: Receipt of Indicative Proposal, page-49

  1. 1,722 Posts.
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    I am not a charting person but understand how they can be useful. I prefer to look at resource investment thesis from a top down approach analysing (as best as I can) demand/supply factors both current and future in the context of the broader economic environment.

    I am not phased by any view on precious metals. China, Russia and Eastern Euorpean countries have accumulated vast sums in order to decouple from US$ vulnerability. Russia is now selling (at substantial profit) to cover oil income deficiencies, this is likely to be temporary, but is meaningful from my perspective. Being able to raise very large sums of free capital, with no counter party risk, is precisely why gold retains its purchasing power in times of chaos.

    IN my humble view, the current financial system, post MMT/QE Infinity etc is unlikely to be sustainable. Nothing will change by the choice of global decree, it will be enforced by global necessity. We live in momentous times that generally coincide with momentous events.

    Since it took 40 years of rampant borrowing and spending to get the world to where it currently is, without being too smug, I actually don't care where the price of gold heads in the short term.

    I am old, I know that 4000oz in 1970 bought a house in Sydney, and 4000oz today (2020) will also buy a house in Sydney. Price fluctuations in between are how astute and sometimes lucky investors are able to buy low and sell high to accumulate large holdings. I am not in that group, but lets say I could buy a house in Sydney today, or retain my holdings. I don't want to leave my children a house in Sydney.

    When considered in A$, gold gains over the last 12 months amount to over 40% whilst investment markets are down around 15% - 20%. If I had left my money to "work for me" or generate income in a term deposit, I would have earned a risk free 1.5%.

    I work in relativities. Even if I don't make money, I am in front if other assets decline because I will be in a position to acquire them using less of my existing capital.

    Although not directly on point, if you look at the NCM chart over the last 5 or 6 years, the stock has risen from $8 to $28, peaking out at $36 or $37. I sold too few in the mid 30's, but a month ago I could buy all I wanted at $23, and did. I don't want to mention any junior producers by name, but the last 2 years has seen 300% - 400% gains in businesses that are debt free and producing gold into an ever rising market in A$ terms.

    This is sort of kids stuff. Accumulating when there is little interest demands conviction of purpose. I had 4 or 5 years to build holdings at A$1,200 - $1,500, which are now valued around twice that. I expect to sell some metal at US$2,200 to $2,400 as I expect governments in crisis will seek to restrict private holdings, just as the did in AUSTRALIA in the late 1960's. That's politics not investment fundamental at work.

    I hold physical gold as an insurance policy against financial markets and gold producers as a means of participating in financial markets.

    Your chart does not show the 1970s boom from US $100 to $850 only to fall to US$200 for 10 years before rising yet again. These things are best lived rather than studied. Booms and busts happen in every market. The trick is to get off when everyone wants in, and in when everyone wants out.

    I am very very pleased your chart shows gold to fall. It means the market remains active with bulls/bears still competing. When everyone wants gold (and I think they will in a couple of years) I will either be dead, or find some other empty paddock to play in. ASX sub 3000? Yep.

    We are all a product of our experience. Having seen and studied the rise of fiat currencies and the fall in investment discipline, I don't need to be where I don't feel comfortable.

    I still hold many of the shares bought in VRL a month ago at less than $1. Having sold just less than half on massive SP recovery since then, these shares cost me absolutely nothing to hold and the proceeds have been handy. Added to the VRL shares I already had (which was the same amount again), I have a lot to gain in the price rises, and my original (pre COVID-19) investment to lose if it falls.

    It keeps me interested in the stock but not wedded to it.

    I admire your investment the other day in the $1.70s. It takes courage to invest where there is uncertainty, and I recognise and respect that quality in all good investors. I truly wish you and all of us, good luck.
 
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