Trouble brewing, page-4

Great info from @Resolute7 and @nextbig - thanks.

It absolutely makes no sense for company such as Qantas, which is currently flying in a corona-virus abyss, to be continuing to increase in share price, whilst many US and European based investment banks predict the current crisis will last up to 3 years.

With @Resolute7's great assessment, I think that it may be the case that an Asia-based airline or investor will pick up Virgin and then the costs of running the airline will drop due to the increased number of Asia-based employees. Qantas will suffer the same fate as Pan Am, with the union-controlled workforce demanding higher pay, whilst the competition is nimble enough to reduce overheads and undercut Qantas to the point when shareholders have had enough, and the government refuses another bailout.

My estimate is that fair value price for QAN is around $1.75, and I expect it to reach that in around 6 months time. Profit takers that got in around the $2.20-$2.50 will be selling soon I think.