Hi all,
A few thoughts to share given today's remarkable announcement.
Firstly, The Federal Government have just made it abundantly clear that they view AVZ's Manono Lithium and Tin project as a MAJOR THREAT to the Australian Lithium Industry. There is no two ways about it given the crystal clear message in the following paragraph.
'The company understands the Federal Government believed AVZ's forecasted production of 87,500 tonnes per annum of LCE from operations planned to commence in 2022 (based on it producing 700,000 tonnes of SC6) was contrary to the national interest of "growing Australia's critical minerals sector".'
@h00ts, before you begin slandering the company and Yibin's lawyers, perhaps you need to understand that both Yibin and AVZ have been in regular contact with FIRB throughout the entire process. So I would very much doubt that AVZ would issue the above statement if they weren't sure whether FIRB had indeed rejected the application. Sorry to debunk your conspiracy theory that Yibin wanted out, as that is simply not the case. And to be honest I expected more from you than your repetitive 'fearmongering' posts this evening (like some of our regular trolls behave. Normally enjoy your unbiased commentary / charts etc. but on this occasion it's big thumbs down from me).
Furthermore, some of us suspected that the Australian Government were concerned about the sheer size and scale of our project when, earlier this year, the newly created Australian Strategic Minerals Council decided that they wanted to take a good look at Manono - a project that's not in their backyard nor within their jurisdiction!
Don't you find that highly unusual in itself?
Anyhow, delay after delay after delay has led to an eventual recommendation by FIRB to Yibin's lawyers to withdraw their application on the basis that it would not be approved by FIRB. Given FIRB's decision and the ridiculous amount of time that it took for them to make a decision (smells of deliberate stalling tactics IMO - disgraceful if that was the case) their decision is pathetic, disappointing and wreaks of severe protectionism - and those rumours that were circulating that the WA Lithium industry were lobbying FIRB hard to have the deal rejected now look to have some merit.
It's absolutely extraordinary IMO (and possibly unprecedented) that the Treasurer apparently possesses powers that can veto foreign investment in an offshore project for the simple reason that it may prohibit 'growth of an Australian sector'. I mean where does one draw the line if FIRB are acting beyond their jurisdiction and effectively making decisions on behalf of other governments, their leased assets and their people?
IMO FIRB have effectively declared war on Chinese investment within and beyond Australian shores and today's perplexing decision will no doubt have wider ramifications for other Australian based companies seeking to create or strengthen Chinese investment and partnerships. I wonder how the Chinese Govt will react to this rejection of investment in
'The Escondida of Lithium' (as quoted by the Chinese Minister For Mines). One thing is for certain, it won't go unnoticed and I now fear for other Australian businesses that are reliant on Chinese investment and how the Chinese Government may react (retaliate?) to FIRB's extraordinary decision.
In any case, these remarkable actions taken by FIRB IMO and only further validate the opinion of the many astute AVZ shareholders as well as management's recommendations to go mining - based on the incredibly robust economics as outlined in the exceptional DFS. That AVZ is very likely to become a powerhouse of the Lithium Hard Rock Industry must be extremely unsettling for WA Lithium Industry (with the exception of Greenbushes) and IMO that is why THEY ARE VERY AFRAID OF MANONO and wish to protect themselves from further fallout any way they can.
Secondly,
@Scarpa my understanding is that pre-payment for Offtake Agreements are NOT subject to FIRB approval (middle finger at FIRB), and I have had confirmation of this from our Company Secretary. Thus I think that we could reasonably anticipate upfront cash from Yibin one way or another, given that their interest securing future supply is allegedly stronger than ever.
As
@Royal_Viking alluded, there are many ways to skin a cat. Aside from a simple cash pre-payment for future SC6 and / or Lithium Sulphate, Yibin could help build and fund the plant at Manono (AVZ to manage) for a percentage of product in the first few years, they could provide debt financing against tenements and / or lease, AVZ could self finance by selling some of our tenements (not my preference), or a combination of many alternatives here.
Thirdly, it is my understanding that the company will seek to underwrite the 3c options due to expire this time next month, and in doing so crystralise a further ~$5.9m by 24th May. Assuming no early pre-payments for OT agreements are received in the interim, the total cash balance by the end of May should be @$10m, which IMO places the company in a strong financial position post the spectacular DFS as it seeks a combination of OT, debt and equity financing with 'highly competitive terms' from a 'wide range of financiers and investors'.
Lastly and despite the initial disappointment, today's decision might prove to be a blessing in disguise for shareholders as Europe, Asia (ex China) and America look to secure strategic mineral supply from long term sources. i.e. any major investment received from (either, some or all) of these territories will most likely have a more profound effect on the SP than Chinese companies might have had on their own.
Manono is unique and boasts the biggest, the best and newest (100% uncommitted thus far but not for long) near term and long term solution for providing consistent Tier 1 quality Lithium raw material for EV battery manufacturers. And most importantly the project is economically sound at prices where other hard rock projects are not. As
@tendoji so adamantly headlined, 'Manono WILL be MINED' and the best part is we don't require FIRB's approval to do it.
GLTA and enjoy the weekend.
Cheers
Elpha
