Stock held down, page-3

I am sure before you bought you had an idea of what you expected for Sp in the next 6 months 1 year and long term. I fully expect Lynas to be a good investment in a couple of years And for that reason I want to buy. Unlike you I expect the probability of the next year being very rough to be high and probability of things going well low, I will stay away till dos are better even if that means paying a little more if i am wrong.
Why do I expect a low SP for a year
I expect NdPr prices to remain low for a year possibly longer. Poor recover in auto and other industries that are Primary users will drive this. I expect China to recover faster because they have much smaller inventory of unsold cars and trucks.

Seound the 2025 plan is great and I like it. any chance of them financing this with cash flow have disappeared with the high price REO Prices of a year a year ago falling about 25%. I expect them to raise all the cash for 2025 easily and probally at favorable terms. They will need to raise between AUD 200M ~ 400m. my guess is it will be at the high end of that range.

Besides going further into debt I do not see much chance of any profits till 2021 AR and that will be slim. Prolong no profits usually means lower SP. Borrowing large amounts of money usually means a lower stock price. Being in an turbulent market, especially when you are not a majority player or have a large unfair cost advantage is never good as well. Lynas does have a cost advantage I will let you explain if you think it is large.

Now if you are willing to sit on this investment for 4 or 5 years there is a good chance you will do well. In that time many things bad could happen. Some of the biggest boosters of this stock declared that Lynas would be selling at a good price in two years after the major refinance in fall of 2016 Since then many things have happened and they are still saying next couple of years.

i am totally convince Lynas may turn out great for the buy and holders. I am also convince that those that do not try and catch the falling knife but patiently wait for Lynas to become a shooting star will have much higher annualized gain. Yes it is fun to say I had a home run with 4x gain but if that is over 4 or 5 years I would would prefer lower gain over a year or two.