Favorite Stock to Short, page-431

Maybe - I do hope your right (for the sake of the rest of the economy). Neither of us really know - its a bit of a guessing game. I am just going off the sounds I hear from the company itself: they seem to be preparing to bunker-down for the long-haul, which seems to indicate that the storm is yet to pass. I guess that's a good thing - Better to be conservative now, than foolish now and regretful later.

Interesting bit of PR coming up on A Current Affair tonight. FLT refusing to refund client money. No doubt FLT spin doctors will claim that they are "trying to deal with the backlog as quickly as possible"; but this is not technically correct. The refunds team is on a go-slow so as to retain operating funds, at least until the government cashflow (from JobKeeper) kicks in, and their new funding arrives. FLT has told all clients "up to 12 weeks" for refunds, and they are sticking by that. Good for cashflow, bad for brand.

I still think that the storm is yet to pass, and that we will see financials drag the ASX lower over the coming month. APRA has increased its liquidity monitoring regime which indicates a level of concern, and we will therefore see other majors follow NAB with regards to provisioning (which hits earnings) and equity raising. This will flow through to the broader market, and weaker stocks, like FLT, will be dragged down based on sentiment. I still think we will see the $7-something range before the long-term trend resumes. If you aren't overly sensitive about a few bucks, then yes - buy in now.