am i thinking right re rentals, page-20

New,

There is a ton of stuff in what you have said.

Yes, the truth is in between and YES (huge YES) understanding of what actually drives prices up or down is the way to go.

I have tried to do this as a group exercise on here but it didn't work. I would be trying to focus on some influence like vacancy rates but others would not like that and want to talk about something else entirely.

I would want to talk about the influence of restrictive planning practices but other posters would refuse to examine that, they wanted to talk about prices in the UK.

I gave it a lot of thought and I decided there is a lot of time and effort involved and in the end what is the upside for me? Nothing.

I know I have a good grasp of competing influences, I have been howled down many times only to have time prove me right. Still didn't lead to any meaningful discussion.

Interest rates. I was forecasting at the end of 2007 that the last quarter of 2008 would see interest rate falls, I gave reasons, I linked to charts, exchange rates, etc but no, it did no good.

People only see what they want to see. The fact that I was proven right means nothing, they still only hear or see what they want. How many of the sneering posters have returned to apologise for being rude and admitting they were wrong? Zero have done that.

Your friend with the cash cows reminds me of my friend who has spent decades buying in Endeavour Hills. People thought he should buy inner city, he just did what he thought was right. He is independently wealthy now and lives in comfortable retirement. He's no Warren Buffet but he never has to work again.

There are so many ways to make money but only if you are looking for them. If you only see doom and gloom, an end rather than a beginning, then you will not see opportunity.

You are right, 70% of homes are owner-occupied, most with significant equity if not full ownership. These people will not sell because clearance rates are low, because prices are high or low. They LIVE there, they raise their families there. This seems to be unclear to many negative people, they seem to think Australians will rush to real-estate agents because sales are slow or because Americans and British prices have dived.

For those who do hit economic hardship and are forced to sell, where do they go? The street? No, they rent. Maybe they move in with Mum and Dad but only temporarily.

Now to professor Keen and his 15 minutes. He is really enjoying himself. After what? 15 years of predicting the end of the world and having the ignominy of seeing prices rise and rise and rise he now has his moment in the sun.

Hope he enjoys it because it won't last. The media will drop him like a hot potatoe as soon as his shock-factor wears thin. Like most academics he misses basic fundamental stuff which you don't see from the ivory towers. Things like the lack of housing, things like the lack of alternatives, you need to live somewhere.

So many people do what he is doing. They look at their world and then extrapolate outwards thinking the whole world must be similar to their world. That's what happens when you are in a protected rarefied environment you lose the practicalities of life, you view the world through sanitised numbers on a screen and then are surprised when your forecasts don't come true.

Actually, the idea of having to share with a bunch of young Uni girls doesn't sound so bad to me but don't tell my wife I said that.