DJIA 0.31% 26,683 dow jones industrials

dow tonight place your bets, page-41

  1. 13,195 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 2702
    The Yanks won't admit it but they are currently in a recession.

    Technically, we define a recession as negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters, however the US meets all of the following criteria, so physically, they are in a recession:

    Economic growth slows - Yes
    Businesses stop expanding - Yes
    Employment falls - Yes
    Unemployment rises - Yes
    Housing prices decline - Yes

    I think that the Dow will move sideways for some time yet, but I also think it will need to test new lows before we see a sustained recovery, be it gradual.

    The dilemma, for my mind, is working out the bottom of the trough or quite simply - where can we place the US economy in the Business Cycle at this point in time?

    The following is where I see the US atm and I'm not counting on the start of the recovery process until mid 2009 at the earliest.

 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add DJIA (INDEXDJX) to my watchlist
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.