buying bcsa could bankrupt you, page-15

If the first distribution was cancelled then that would ruin any semblance of sentiment for the project, and probably trash the rep of Macquarie and Deutsche more than they would like (maybe I'm being a bit idealistic here?)

Why would anyone buy (at almost any price) post April 2009 if the distribution (Yield is a massive part of the stock's remaining appeal) is uncertain, and predicated by a cancellation when all along we've been told that everything is fully funded and cash has deliberately been set aside to pay the First Fixed Distribution? I just don't see QIC, MQG and DB wanting to deal with the public fallout that would follow.

The commercial and reputational damage would be too great, and much higher than $24m...

I see declaration of the intended distribution on Dec 19 as more likely than not, and essential to avoid this thing trading at these levels after the second instalment is paid. At least if there is come certainty with distributions then it remains a defensible medium term yield play. If not, then it's pure spec.

No rush for BCS to confirm either way - 19 December is a fair way away and plenty might change in the markets over that time (in both directions!).

I think someone just dumped 10m at 0.2c. Hope they weren't an initial subscriber!

SO: I reckon it'll tick up in coming weeks, but 1c looks a long way away and I doubt many would buy above that until the 19 Dec announcement, though confirmation of the distribution would likely see a spike.

Ah well, these things are sent to test us...