Several speakers at the Metal Bulletin-ITRI 9th International Tinplate Conference taking place in Istanbul this week have commented on continuing global growth prospects.
Tarun Daga, chief operating officer of Tata Tinplate told delegates in a keynote address that 15 - 16 million tpy of tinplate is consumed globally and the market is growing at 3-5% per year, with India, China, Latin America and Russia driving the increase. “Investment activities in these countries might slow a bit due to the current turmoil, but the growth story still holds on the same level,” he said. Asia is forecast to account for 48% of the global market by 2010.
He noted that in India, where Tata subsidiary Tinplate Company of India (TCIL) is commissioning a new 200,000 tpy dual tinplate/TFS line this month, 80% of packaged goods are consumed by 20% of the population. But GDP per capita is approaching a “take-off zone” which is expected to result in double-digit growth rates in the next five years. In a separate paper TCIL’s Abesh Chaterjee estimated that the Indian market size would soon expand from 378,000 tonnes in 2007/2008 to over 500,000 tpy. TCIL’s capacity will rise further from the new total of 380,000 tpy to 750,000 tpy in 2012.
Meanwhile He Jinzhou of China’s second largest tinplate producer Zhongyue Tinplate said that China was in the middle of a second boom in tinplate capacity expansion. Capacity has risen sharply to 3.84 million tpy in the last few years, with further increases of 800,000 tpy due in the next two years. The domestic market for tinplate and TFS is forecast to grow at 8% a year in the next five years.
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