Objective Analysis - BNPL Bad debt explained, page-20

I think it looks right for now.

The elephant in the room is how the economic recovery transpires. V shaped, U shaped or otherwise. There is still the risk that we have a bit of a dead cat bounce recovery which could increase customers spending habits and re-enter stage 1 in the above scenario.

The other option (one of many) is a swift economic recovery (V shaped).

I see latest news is that credit card debt has been heavily paid down over March and April. Too early to tell if this is just due to a cut in spending or due to debt aversion. It is generally a good thing for Afterpay though as customers (rightfully) view it as a different type of debt to CC debts.