Ann: Letter to Shareholders and SPP Offer Document, page-111

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FrankieAlfie

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14/05/20

09:00

Post #: 44609937
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Originally posted by FrankieAlfie: ↑

I'm glad they are going to give an update re: sales for April. I am interested in the comment that the company has given that the sales are growing.
It is so hard to get a clear picture so I would appreciate any help. So far I can work out (rough figures only so don't rip into me):
On the 29/10 in an announcement, the company states that over 35 000 units have been sold. This current webinar states that over 40 000 units have been sold. An obvious difference of around 5000 units.
From January to 31st March we had 2500 units sold as per the quarterly. That leaves December which had 900 000 but by early December it was 700 000. This means depending on how they incorporated the sales into the 35 000 units they may have sold 500 additional in the remainder of December (not included in the 35000) or they may have sold 2000 units (not included in the 35000).
This is important because if they have already included the majority of the sales into that 35 000 figure it means that there have been more sales in April and if they didn't obviously April sales would be disappointing. So there are two scenarios:
1. When they announced 35000 units sold they had included that period with black Friday sales. If that is the case then I would expect the rest of December to be approximately 500 units sold. Add to that the 2500 units sold in the jan quarter and we end up with approximately 3000 units sold. 35000 plus 3000 is 38000 leaving 2000 units sold in April/may. That would suggest a revenue currently at $900 000. Tracking to be more than the previous quarter. Consistent with the messaging.
2. If the 35000 units didn't include the sales mentioned in one the numbers go a bit like this. 35000 plus an additional 2100 unit giving us 37100 end of December then an additional 2500 for the jan quarter which ends up 39600. Let's be generous and say that 40000 + actual means 41000. That is an additional 500 units or revenue in the vicinity of 225 000. A poor result an inconsistent with the message of continued growth.
Again these are rough figures but if scenario 1 is playing out then revenue will grow for this quarter. If scenario 2 is playing out not so much. I suspect it is somewhere in the middle as these would be extreme figures but the closer to scenario one the better. I would be interested in investigating inventory figures as well.

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to update this post it would seem they have sold an extra 1500 units in April.
I get this figure from the quarterly stating they had sold 2500 units end of March. And in this announcement they state 4000 units in the first four months.
that would be revenue in the area of 1500 x 450 = 675000 or approx 22500 per day. Rest of the quarter a reasonable estimate would result in another $1 300 000 in revenue for a total of 2 million.
that is significant especially considering word of mouth sales haven’t kicked in.

NUH Price at posting: 2.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
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