Here's an interesting note from Roskill:
European cathode makers like Umicore and BASF are reducing expectations on NCM 811 manufacturing. Umicore said at AABC that it can produce NCM 811 but the “sweet spot” may be 70% Ni (NCM 712), or monolithic or over-lithiated NCM 622. BASF now targets high-manganese cathodes as a solution to the price volatility of other metals. In Roskill’s view, this narrative is more aligned with the fact that NCM811 is a difficult cathode chemistry to produce, as it requires specific conditions of temperature and atmosphere. Roskill believes that the cost of using NCM 811 cathodes at system level (EV pack) is considerably higher than using other NCM cathodes with nickel under 80%, as they require advanced coatings and electrolyte additives.
High-nickel cathodes are definitely preferred. I'm not sure that NCM 811 will be the dominant chemistry though.
