sell now?, page-83

Hey, I'm a TA freak too :)

Just wondering though, to what extent you guys feel the following is valid:

TA uses past movements to give indicators about what future movements might look like, mostly based on historical records of volume and price and interpolation/extrapolation from that data. Providing the market works as it has in the past, it is reasonably effective (if not predictive).

TA falls down when extrinsic factors prevent the market from moving like it has in the past. A comet striking the middle east, for example, will impact the price of oil in a way that TA was unable to predict.

At present, we are in a market that may well be unprecedented. This erodes the efficacy of TA somewhat (but not entirely, of course).

This is basically where I've ended up. I'm not longer following MACD and Bollingers and so on, sticking to channel analysis, candlestick analysis and good ol fashioned gut.

I actually think one of the most useful types of analysis at the moment is news and media analysis. Looking at the amount of fear/hope getting play seems to actually be more predictive for me at the moment than many traditional tools.

That's not a 'truth' of course, just an opinion. And if people are making money, as Robbbbbbb says - stick with it. I just guess I'm one who has seen my traditional tools break down a bit and is tinkering with other ones.

I don't track fib levels, though, so it may well be that they're holding up to the challenge better and that I should finally get onto using them. Is that the case do you think, Robbbbbb?