Ann: Change in substantial holding, page-23

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asculpeous

2,531 Posts.

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22/05/20

08:12

Post #: 44765708
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Originally posted by asculpeous: ↑

Glad that you are amused,but It's simple mathematics.
Just think about it: if they have budgeted for a full takeover but if us punters decide to stop selling to them,because they are now hooked,they may have to raise their offer substantially to get to 51% for board control......but I doubt it,there's a congor line of those willing to throw away their shares.

If more punters do fold,the next station for this train is 90% control and that is where the folding is compulsory....but there is a long way to go.Aurene has had an easy ride to date.Anyone who is smart and starts this course of action has
1.more money in the kitty than they are prepared to acknowledge
2.Plan B (?get 51%)
3.Plan C etc

Fear of losing a quick profit is driving punter action.
What Asculpeous is saying is that their should be plenty in the kitty to fund a higher offer.Just sit back and work it out.....but agree it is naive to think that peoples will hold and allay their fears,when they can give into fear and take a profit.

Anyway the Aurene train will be slowed at a few crossing:
Reserve statement
PFS
Expert Valuation

The risk on the downside for us is that this have already been factored into the SP.
There is also an upside risk for the bidder.

Asculpeous has been involved in many of these scenarios before- know "when to hold and when to fold".
Now is a time to hold.

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After thought:
And your mission today Bobby,
If you wish to accept it is:
Google The Mathematics of Game Theory
.........and if you understand it,you might might be able to help poor old Asculpeous refine the equations in his head

ARS Price at posting: 4.6¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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