hybrid debt/equity swap , page-46

The potential losses to the banks with AFG, nor the potential losses and effect to the economy that closing down the predominant provider in an important sector would have (ABS/Childcare), have not stopped the banks from calling in the administrators.

Why would CNP be treated any differently?

The debt/equity scenario seems most likely, but it certainly wont be done on Centro's terms, and it most certainly won't be anywhere near 50c IMO. Shareholders will be diluted out of existence. CNP are not in a position of strength to dictate terms. Creditors may well be willing to accept firesale prices for Centro's assets, which would give them the capital to purchase other distressed assets which have come onto the market in recent months. Those assets would in time enable them to recover their lost capital from the loans to CNP. Some creditors may even purchase Centro's assets themselves through other investment vehicles.

Tremendous sums of money will be made from Centro's assets in the future, but it will not be by existing shareholders.

If a debt/equity proposal is not acccepted by either Centro's management or creditors, the sale of Centro's assets may not be the path forward for creditors. CNP may well become another Pasminco.

For those not familiar, Pasminco was a mining company which folded in 2001. Creditors took charge of the assets, and eventually re-listed them as Zinifex, a company who's success I am sure we are all familiar with. In that situation, creditors recovered about half of their loans from the float...shareholders received nothing. As Pasminco was a mining company, the risks associated with any miner would have led to less debt being recovered from the listing of Zinifex. Something like CNP's assets, which are in property and much safer, might well lead to recovery of much more than half of the debt owed to creditors if floated.

Anyway you look at it, shareholders will lose the lot IMO...just par for the course. Can anyone recall a positive outcome that has occured with companies in these situations?

MFS, AFG, and ABS are gone, all laden with massive debt...BNB and CNP are next IMO. If you want to place a bet, and that's all it is at this stage(albeit a very poor one), then CER is a better option IMO...but only marginally.