Hi Gamzu,
I won't comment on the geological aspect of CHK's Horse Well tenements that abut BHP's discovery as there are other posters far more knowledgeable in that aspect. Have a read of @GeoNeo excellent research, I'm sure it will help in understanding the geology of the area.
However, as you rightly say, nearology plays can be no guarantee of success and are in the main highly speculative, and at this moment in time one can never fully know what can be found on CHK's Horse Well , .. it can only be a calculated guess.
But with CHK currently at 0.008 and at a MC of approx 7m, one can argue that downside may be limited, on the other hand the potential upside if things go right can be significant. Therefore one can only weigh up the risk / reward dynamic and speculate only the amount of capital that is appropriate for one's risk reward appetite.
I'm sure the risk vs reward advice is very much a default response in these types of plays so forgive me for stating the obvious.
Once again, have a look at GeoNeo's research, its very informative.
Regards
John
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