PET (ASX) Ann: AGM Presentation

Originally posted by edshann: ↑

My take was nothing much new was said and certainly nothing to excite the market.

My interpretation of the comment on Zeep was it worked in the lab, but making it commercial could take a while.

On the accounts cash declined from $15 million at Dec 31 to $9.4 million at 31 March and in the absence of the placement would have declined further to $8.8 million at 25 May (assuming the $0.8 million cost of the raising has been paid).

I also found interesting the cash flow table. There are sales of $50 million, cash receipts from customers at end Dec are only $40 million and receivables grow from $17 million at end 2019 to $27 million at end 2020. Net cash (operating and capital) is actually negative by $2.2 million over 2020, before the capital raising. That presumably reflects the bulk of work being done in the second half of the year and lagged cash receipts. The half year cash flow at 30 June, excluding the placement will not be flash. That is not really surprising given covid and explains the need for the sudden cash raising.

I asked whether the range of forecast receipts for Chinese other projects of $9-18 million and $4.5-9 million new international projects was a range for certain projects, or whether possible but not certain projects were also included. It was not answered live, but all questions are supposed to be answered on the website, so I will wait and see.

I note that the total forecast sales range is unchanged at $50-70 million. However, Chinese sales are estimated at $40-55 million and international sales total is around $10 million, which implies the top end of the range is unlikely. I suspect the bottom end of the range is more likely. The certain Chinese projects bottom range is $45 million (assuming $2 million for Dianchi trials) and the international bottom range is $10.5 million (and covid could delay some of these), suggesting the "certain" total sales are only just over $50 million.

Lachie mentioned that the trial on Dianchi was small. I assume that means the main impact if it proceeds after the trial will be in 2021.

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Hi Ed
with regards to Lachie mentioning the trail on Dianchi was small, this might be a good thing for us. one of my questions (didn't find out the answer) was who is assess the trail results. i suspect that both Xingyun and dianchi lakes are more from the Provence government and not local government. so more than likely it is the same body assessing Dianchi trail as Xingyun. they might not need a long trail period or area as xingyun results back up our effectiveness. this trail might just be getting the mix / dosage right before a more larger application which could start within months, so might see
good $ value on this project coming though this year as well. just my thinking

i think saggito and kev have been discussing shilongba trail as part of dianchi going ahead. i don't read dianchi as being contingent on shilongba.

with the forecast is hard to tell right now as the 9 to 18m in other in china sale we know little about but rough guess could be
shilongba 20
xingyun 12
wetlands 2
canal 2
other projects 9 (bottom end)
dianchi trail 2
rest of world i'm only using 5
so thats about $52m but if the rest of the world can do the 10 and the other china projects do the 18 that could add another 14m and if dianchi trail all good and some main treatment done later this year that could be another 5m and if wuhan starts again could be a few more million. lots of ifs but not giving up on the top end of forecast yet as the ifs all stand a good chance of coming though.

thanks
mickem