Hi Shakespeare,
Thanks for the question. I spotted an error which increases the value. It always helps me to check the calcs.
Assuming:
NPV US$ 14/bbl
A$/US$ 0.66
OOIP 476 MMbbls
RF 30%
WI 30%
Resource 43 MMbbl
Value A$ 910 million
per share 87 cents
Risked value @ 20% POS 17 cents
An upside sensitivity on an NPV US$ 20/bbl is
124 cps unrisked
25 cps risked
I welcome feedback and would like to see how others model this.
Regards,
opt
what's the downside risk?, page-7
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