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547 Posts.
184
29/05/20
07:32
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yes I agree Vale wants out at almost any cost just to clean up their portfolio.
NCZ wants in at any cost to get bigger and kick the hit success can out further
BUT I disagree that Century acquisition was paid for by MMG
Every day big stuffed mines get sold for $1
But that $1 buys heaps of liabilities and liabilities on a balance sheet are just that
A large finance loan to buy a mine is no different to a large rehab liability which is same as a big loan has to be paid back
What is it at century? $400m or so?
And is that really the true cost?
So Century cost at least $400m just on that liability alone
And what will be all the balance sheet liabilities be for Goro?
Youve seen the pictures, putting that back to as close a land form as pre Mining is the rehab liability.
Compare that to the pictures of century
Plus the Soverign liabilities aka employee and government recompense at closure
Not even talking operational risk to deliver
Why are Vale walking?
Yes the current residual liabilities but also the operational success risk.
And they must understand the operational risk and residual liabilities very well
Vale made that judgement
MMG also made that judgement
NCZ can take on major risk as opportunistic to grow hoping for commodity revenue luck
NCZ can also roll the dice because if it all fails it’s just ASX money and they can fade away
But Vale types can’t fade away because they are so big their mother country has heavy interest and huge regulatory input
Their executives don’t enjoy the below the radar, fade away benefits of a small ASX lister executive
That all said it doesn’t mean it’s a bad move by NCZ this happens all the time and at least Aussies are some of the best miners in the world
Typical metal commodity growth long term is pretty positive especially in specialty strategic metals for the future economy
For me I’m remaining positive on this move just based on a positive future global advancement into the new economy
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