research reports and media, page-749

Hi Jerund,

I noted this comment you made with interest, I hope you don’t mind.

“If this upside was found to be limited, I would likely rebalance my portfolio into something that remains high but not at 50%.”

Just keep in mind that by the time you found this out the SP would probably be a lot lower and it would likely already be a smaller part of your portfolio.


In relation to competition:

I agree with Sunny, no market opportunity the size that PAR is looking to address will be without competition. That is why when seeing if the investment case stacks up you should use very conservation numbers. Conservative pricing, conservative adoption rates, conservative market share, conservative timeframes to commercialisation and conservative views on competition.

Once you have done that and it still stacks up you have somewhat of a margin of safety that if all the base case scenarios played out the stock would still be higher in 5 years time. I think with PAR we have that.

In relation to risk:

Personally, as we still need to pass phase 3 for FDA approval and receive TGA approval I would not allow this stock to represent more than 50% of my portfolio. It is a Biotech stock and while all indications are that it will do very well it is still inherently risky at this stage of its life cycle (although less than most but also priced to be less).

The great thing about PAR is that it is almost like a platform technology and the pipeline of potential indications are huge. I don’t factor any of that potential upside in when assessing today’s value, again adding to the margin of safety.

We all know (or should know) the real potential of what we own and what it may one day become. That is why shares of PAR trade at a MC of + $600 Million with zero revenue and a non approved drug (albeit with $100 + million in the bank).

Perception and recognition of risk:

However, I feel some here almost think PAR is without risk and that is simply not true. Don’t invest more than you can handle losing and ask yourself if PAR went to zero would that take you out of the game? I have a relatively large position and am a focused concentrated investor but I still ask myself these questions.

What is your risk profile?

Everyone is different and everyone has a different risk profile and individual circumstances. Just ensure you understand this about yourself and invest appropriately.

I am very optimistic about achieving a great result from PAR over the next 5 to 15 years and hope I get the opportunity to hold it for longer than this.

DYOR and Not advice.