Kennethgalbraith you compiled a great list of the revised estimations of decline in earnings by analysts over the last week or so. Could you compile a similar lists for EPS and profit. I don't really know what were their original estimations. Last year MQG earned 1.05B profit for the period.
Beyond the general fall in the market, I think two factors have really hammered the stock over the last fortnight, uncertainty over the amount of writedowns and their true capital position. What's their true debt level? Can they service it in this current economic environment? Is their business model still viable? The media has had a field day regarding these issues and this has intensified the negative sentiment around the stock.
The writedown question will be answered on Tuesday. But if the market still fret about their capital position, which means the survival of the company as it is, the stock will head south again, and perhaps for good. Once you have passed a 70% drop it's very difficult to recover.
All the selling has come from small shareholders and no one has been willing to support the stock. Yet so far institutions are still backing the stock, none have bailed out. The Capital Group bought 5% in early September. A good pointer to future viability of the stock will be if they stay on the register after Tuesday's results.
18 November 2008 promises to be the most important day in the company's history. For me too, I hold a significant amount of shares which I bought at $85.!
Cheers.
MQG Price at posting:
$22.35 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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