AEI Valuation Discussion, page-11

First 11 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
haiku-blessyou

564 Posts.

92

06/06/20

19:25

Post #: 45080062
Share

Originally posted by edshann: ↑

This is from an earlier thread on which I posted on 3/5/20. Market cap is now $136 million so PE is now 13.5 on next year's earnings on this calculation. It is unclear whether the US capacity mentioned in the most recent announcement means total capacity will now be more than the 3 times the capacity in the second half of FY20 that was mentioned in the presentation of 31/3/20 page 4. I am assuming not until clearer figures are provided.

For FY2020

Assume $13 million revenue in FY2020 and a gross profit margin of nearing 50% (from the presentation of 31/3/20 page 4).Gross profit is $6 million. Overheads are stated at $6 million pa (presentation page 14 and confirmed by Appendix 4C).

So net cash flow/profit nil in FY 2020. I ignore depreciation which was minor in first half.

For FY 2021.

For FY 2021 assume revenue of $30 million (capacity at 3 times 2H FY20 from presentation page 4).This assumes they can sell whatever they produce. The $10 million of revenue in 2H FY 20 certainly suggests over $20 million next year given capacity is expanding.Gross profit margin 55% (over 50% in future from presentation page 4)

Gross profit $16.5 million less overheads $6 million.So net cash flow/profit $10.5 million, with guess at depreciation of $0.5 m, so net profit $10 million.

I assume no tax given tax losses of $8.3 million were available at end FY19 (annual report).

At market cap of $150 million the price earnings ratio in FY 21 is 15.

AEI is at early stages of growth and so future estimates have a very high risk. There is no guide to possible growth in FY22, particularly if covid stimulated demand is falling by then. So whether a PE of 15 next year is cheap or expensive is up to you.

Expand

I disagree a little with your FY2020 figures.

At the end of April they were reporting $11m in booked revenue and $2m in orders yet to be filled. So $13m revenue means that for all of May/June the company would have to deliver those remaining $2m in orders and no more. This implies $1m revenue per month in both May and June, after $4m in feb alone. That’s a huge drop.

I will be very surprised if FY20 revenue is anything less than $14m

AEI Price at posting: 56.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

IR1

IRIS Metals sniffs 75 metres of lithium in South Dakota, pushing share price up 9.99%

Bitcoin: Current State of Play & Where to Next | Swyftx

Emerald & Azure score Digger & Dealer awards

LVH

Livehire sees share rocket 91% on takeover bid by Humanforce

MMM

Former lockdown darling Marley Spoon dips -5% after announcing voluntary ASX de-listing

There are more pages in this discussion • 116 more messages in this thread...

First 11 Last

Add AEI (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 7.3¢		Change 0.009(14.1%)		Mkt cap ! $17.93M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
6.5¢	7.3¢	6.5¢	$28.69K	412.3K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	15238	6.7¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
7.3¢	131727	3

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	15238	0.067
1	40000	0.066
2	86153	0.065
1	54765	0.064
1	51855	0.060

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.073	43234	2
0.074	66846	1
0.075	13333	1
0.078	100000	1
0.082	20952	1

Last trade - 13.19pm 14/08/2024 (20 minute delay)

AEI (ASX) Chart

AEI Valuation Discussion, page-11

IRIS Metals sniffs 75 metres of lithium in South Dakota, pushing share price up 9.99%

Bitcoin: Current State of Play & Where to Next | Swyftx

Emerald & Azure score Digger & Dealer awards

Livehire sees share rocket 91% on takeover bid by Humanforce

Former lockdown darling Marley Spoon dips -5% after announcing voluntary ASX de-listing

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

AEI Valuation Discussion, page-11

Top Stories

IRIS Metals sniffs 75 metres of lithium in South Dakota, pushing share price up 9.99%

Bitcoin: Current State of Play & Where to Next | Swyftx

Emerald & Azure score Digger & Dealer awards

Livehire sees share rocket 91% on takeover bid by Humanforce

Former lockdown darling Marley Spoon dips -5% after announcing voluntary ASX de-listing

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News