Confirmed contraction in March quarter.
Almost certain contraction in June quarter (quarter ending June 30) but data to confirm this won't be available until July and August.
2 consecutive quarters of negative growth (contraction) = technical definition of recession.
Any suggestion that we're coming out of recession seems to be on a presumption that we've started growing again simply because people are out and about and shopping etc. so September quarter will most likely be positive (which would be confirmed when the figures come out in October/November).
Probably reasonable to assume we're in the process of exiting recession but we could easily fall back again in the December quarter when the stimulus comes off.
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