who posted 40 cents, page-5

Agree with this Bungy.

Though, to cover yourself, wouldn't sell entire portfolio.

Better upside to this strategy when the stock was/ is trading in sixties and seventies.

Further to recent comment I've been making, my feel is that the IO stocks, including UMC, bottom may be tested around April - June '09.

Say this because Chinese will obviously turn knife in interim to optimise outcomes of IO price negotiations:

1. Running down stockpiles;
2. Pumping up domestic IO output;
3. Closing down high cost and smaller steel mills, reducing demand;
4. Shutting down spot market to the extent that they are able.

There's also the trade credit issue that seems to be biting a lot harder than I think a lot of people realise: impacting the ability of steel mills to pay their bills, and in turn impacting the preparedness of the majors to ship ore.

The overall ASX 200, etc. could conceivably bottom before this, though the IO stocks bottom and the index bottom could well coincide.

There's a couple of other reasons I suggest the dates I have:

1. This would fit with the length of the 73-4 drop - around 20 or 22 months - and around then the fiscal stimulus in China could well start to kick in which was one of the longest bear market falls (from top to bottom). That said, I believe the fiscal stimulus may well take longer to impact, though at some stage next year forward orders will surely have to start kicking in.
2. I believe there could be some further hedge fund shakeout and selling between now and there which could give rise to significant market instability.

The hedge fund involvement and reach is one of the greatest unknowns in this entire speculative bubble.

Whenever we do hit the bottom however, I also expect it to dribble along there for quite some time: unlikely to be a quick recovery IMO. Again, history is perhaps the best guide to what might be ahead.

Some good coin could be made from here for those in the right stocks (which this one appears to be).

Just my ten cents, and apologies for not picking up that roo off the roo bar this morning Bungy. Might have made a good soup.

BUSH