Kiwi,
I like your analysis but the big thing to keep in mind is that the U.S. central bank is a serial bubble blowing machine. Outsourcing their manufacturing to China means they now have no other way of generating economic growth without the issuing of more and more debt. You can bet your bottom dollar Bernanke will be printing like crazy in the months and years ahead for he has stated that deflation is not an option.
Sure, oil and natural gas may be cheap now - but in my opinion it won't last. I've got my snout in the MAE trough and I'm loving every minute of it.
(And still hoping we get to 10 cents before the next announcement!)
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