"Under the terms of the MOU, Kyocera now will have until the end of July 2020 for exclusive rights to negotiate a commercial license for Progenza OA in Japan"
So - In reality ~ 4 weeks before we know whether there is a commercial deal or we hand back the check and the company folds.
What odds...? if not for the Due diligence process/announcement i'd say a coin flip - now, maybe 60/40.
Downside - depending on the scope of the deal, the SP movement probably only gets it back to mid/high teens.
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- Ann: Kyocera completes Progenza Due Diligence
Ann: Kyocera completes Progenza Due Diligence, page-19
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