friday trading, page-139

haspete,

Great charts.

Very well noted about the 25 year trendline at SPX 680ish. Also the point about the black crows.

I've got 680-690 as my SPX low target. That's 10% down and consistent with 10% drop to my 2920-30 target for XAO.

Consider:
- SPX bounced 160pts from 850 to 1010, then failed to hold 850. That right there gives me a downside target of 850-160=690.
- SPX Extension: 420pt fall from 1265 to 845 (closing low). 1008 less 420 = 688.
With the 100 fib taken out, it just needs to hit that long term trendline to complete its fall.

Also, the SPX is now below the 200day EMA. Possibly a retest of the EMA tonight/Mon? from below which then fails causes a final large 10% one-day fall from here which is actually a false break of the 200 day EMA and therefore then reverses rapidly. Or maybe it just collapses tonight?

Presumably we'll hear some news about GM etc at the same time the 200day EMA retest fails.

A final note - AUD is still falling and has yet to test its recent lows.

IMO all that's happening this afternoon is a stop halfway along this capitulation and an overhead gap has been filled, increasing the chances of going lower.

Nevertheless it is close to the lows so no real harm done if you go long now.