swap does not know anything about shares., page-5

I have always tried to support any postings I have made with facts and then drawn conclusions and offer opinions from there. I don't believe that resorting to a personal attack by saying that I know nothing about 'shares' is a very sophisticated approach on your part, catchy or not.

My position on CNP is very clear, the company will go into administration if they cannot pull the D2E swap off. I base this on the fact that the debt burden is too heavy, asset values are dropping and the amount of equity on the balance sheet is probably insufficient for the company to continue. In addition, the fact that CNP is liable for $1.3bn of SuperLLC debt would all but guarantee failure if SuperLLC was to default.

I calculated and posted some numbers on what I thought the D2E swap would look like. These were available for discussion and critique to all who read it. I also pointed out the impact of administration and suggested that for various reasons, all concerned would want to avoid it.

I admitted in the posting "Lay of the sauce and the cubans" that we had sold down our holding in CNP by 40% (i.e. we only have 60% of the original) once, as I said "It was very obvious what was about to happen". I also said that we are not buying any more until the future becomes clearer. This would fit into your term, "bailed", in-part at least.

If the company can get a refinance without D2E swap, this would be an amazing outcome in the current environment. I doubt anyone disagrees on this point.

I am 'optimistic' (as you say) about CNP, but realistic about the possible outcomes and the potential for loss, hence the reason for our partial sell-down.

My position on CER is also clear: I believe the fate of the company is decoupled from that of CNP. This is based on comments from the company at financial year end, the fact that CER's gearing is significantly lower than that of CNP, the $2.9bn of equity still on the balance sheet, and the calculation that even if SuperLLC falls over, there is plenty of safety margin still in the NTA. The JV with CNP is weighing the company down, but CER exposure is ringfenced whereas CNP is not.

It is for this reason that we have not sold down any CER and, as I said, "I continue to feel very good [about it]". In your words, I am 'optimistic' about CER.

At the risk of stating the obvious, if CNP does go under, CER SP will be punished mercilessly in the short term but this does not mean CER will follow the same route long term.

One final note, HC is an anonymous internet discussion forum made up of people from all aspects of the financial world. It would be naive to think that what is said here has much impact on the SP of a stock or the investment decisions of the millions of dollars that change hands daily. I would hope though that anyone who does take information from this place combines it with company reports, media, analyst reports, financial advisor opinions and other sources before making their own investment decision.

I enjoy posting on HC and I've always hoped that my postings add some value (and hopefully some humour in these dark times). If you disagree with anything I post, then add more value by saying why and allow the community to discuss it openly.