I'm curious have you actually done any work its financials and funding costs, etc? The underlying fundamentals and cash generation is quite impressive. People keep talking about the 3-4% margin but have you taken into account it's on a 2 month cycle? So it means for every $1 they are funded, they actually utilise 6 times. In annualise terms those margins become quite juicy and more than ample to cover the losses. As a warehouse funder there will be numerous convents to stop funding to protect yourself before the losses wipe out excess spread and seller notes, etc.
I agree that it's overvalued at the moment given the economic uncertainty. - I truly do think once September comes along, the Jobseeker and Job Keeper payments are pulled. Banks pulling the holiday deferrals, the twin effects will cause unemployment to surge. People who was online shopping would pull back especially those on JobSeeker when it's halved.
Not to mention the property prices will be stressed with the uptick of defaults in March (usual mortgage collections process takes 185 days) which will mean more people tightening their belts. Investment properties won't be able to refi at higher valuations (equity take outs), so in general a lot less cash floating around in the economy for people to spend or feel like spending.
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