looking good for 2009, page-27

i am absolutely a believer in self-sampling as a huge growth market.

the only question in my mind is what the economics will be for PLT longer term in this market.

Potentially, the following groups need to get "fed" in a self sampling product sale:

- Wholesale distributor

- Retailer / doctor

- Pathology lab

- Supplier of pathology test

- Supplier of self sampling device

The overall economic pie on each self sampler sold will not be huge. Now - PLT supporters implicitly contend that much of the value in the overall offering will flow to the supplier of the self sampler.

I am far from sure that this is the case.

I am grappling with comparable situations from history. On the downside - is PLT like (the hypothetical) ACME Wheel Nuts who supplied wheel nuts to the Model T ford only to find that all of the margin got competed away when two new wheel nut factories opened and they went out of business by 1920?

Or is PLT like INTEL who through constant innovation and R&D and their own product branding have ensured that we all feel confident having them inside our PCs and laptops?

Personally, i simply don't see why a moulded piece of plastic with a little bit of IP would provide a long term competitive advantage to PLT. Or even the right to sit at the table.