That is an absolutely disgracefull forecast.
+18% trade surplus in October $38billion for the month = biggest monthly trade surplus on record
+22% increase in domestic sales growth
Not one dollar spent on their own stimulus package at this point
Increased year on year supply contract orders still in place - a reduced increase in demand is not a decrease in demand
Recently announced stimulus package equivelant to between 12months and 18months trade surpluses
BHP is spending 4.8billion on the Pilbara expansion, not because they just feel like spending some cash, but because when economists actually accept that the new world economy does not number the paradigmed 1.2billion people in the Western World, but instead includes another 2.6 billion emergin consumers, then they will understand that at current inventories, there are not enough commodities developed to sustain the real onslaught ahead.
India announced its 5 year new power grid generation was to expand from 35GW to 90GW for the next 5 years. Result - they will need another 600MT of Cole annually. Where is that comming from.
600million vehicles on the worlds roads now, within 15 years there will be over 3billion. Where are the materials going to come from to build those.
This news is comming out daily - BHP is responding to it under its infrastructure works and planning.
The last four years was not the boom. It was the false start the world needed to prepare for the new world economy.
3times the consumers within two decades to come.
Look out!
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