why minemakers is the best phosphate play, page-9

I note the presentation released from the AGM has been significantly toned down from previous announcements – which is a positive. They are better off waiting until the scoping study is released before providing any figures. And it is a good thing that the scoping study is to be delayed if that means if is going to be more comprehensive and more accurate – so let us not beat them up about this – though they were probably premature announcing when it was likely to be finished, particularly given that was only about 3 weeks or so ago. And I don’t know why we need to get too excited about increased resources – if they already have 203M tonnes – and the nature of these deposits is generally such that they are fairly massive – then do they need more resources? Of course it is a positive to focus on the high grade areas in the search for DSO, but I do not believe they will be in a position to say whether dso is likely by early next year. They will need to properly infill drill, do testwork on the ore – reactivity, ability to convert to phosphoric acid and the like, and then consider markets for the product. AD acknowledged a lack of transparency in P2O5 prices – and the price of dso will be affected by grade and level of contaminants – so do not expect the dso to be achieving the fob price from Morocco.
The other issue is transport costs – we keep hearing what excellent infrastructure they have, and overall it is good – except it is still a long, long way from Port. Transport/logistic costs are going to be significant – I would expect at least $100/t when including stockpile costs, load out/load on costs, transfer costs, port costs and the like. They are going to be better off transporting the highest grade ore they can, which will probably lead towards cleaning up what would otherwise be considered DSO. But in that situation you do not build a beneficiation plant for the higher grade ore – it needs to be built for the average grade ore, or lower.
I think the project is positive – but there remain many issues to be resolved before a true snapshot of the project is likely. The tone of the AGM presentation is – finally – starting to acknowledge that. IMO.