I think it's a function of a lot of factor's . We know that distribution play's a BIG part of it as the SP increases , and again as it oscillates around key support levels ....as well as when it re-traces.
So the ' Multiples ' of the volumes between trading session's can be interpreted from the movements based on size and measurement of the relevant cumulative volume days. So like I was saying the other day , a lot has to do with the ' Size ' of the ' New ' share parcels issued relative to the volume traded, and then against the overall available shares on issue. So while ' Stop's ' will explain some of these ' Gaps ' and ' Test ' in resistance and support levels , the trending volatility across consecutive trading sessions will begin to tell a story.
For instance between the 24th & 25th June on the ASX , we had approximately 42 million traded between a LOW of 5.4 cents and a HIGH of 8.5 cents . That's a 57% move but only a 48% move to its close of 8 cents. So when you overlap the 26th with the 27th , you get 51 million traded with a 91% gain from the Low to the High with a 43.75% based on the close of 9.4 cents. Similarly on the 26th & 29th which straddled the weekend you get almost 46 million traded with a 40% increase from the Low of 8.2 cents to the High of 11.5 cents with a 29% increase from the High and the close on the second day being the 29th of 8.9 cents.
So essentially we say that the volumes are more or less ' equivalent ' with the upwards mover being more or less 100% from the first TWO days , with virtually a 50% re-trace then a 40% move and a 10% re-trace .
In the last two days , we then had 14% increase from the Lows of 7.1 cents to the High with only 2.8% move from the low to the close of 7.3 cents on the 1st July. And that was on 25 million in volume or around half. Today we have approximately 8.5 million on the ASX with a move of 16.44 % from the Lows of 7.3 cents . So what this is telling me in simple terms is that the volume is clearly dissipating with the SP ' testing ' and supporting repeatedly around the 8.0 - 8.1 cent level.
So I reckon if we were to do another near 25 million today , and close on 8.9 cents , then I would be looking for the next move through 10 cents to around 10.6 -11 cent which would complete the movement on around the same ' equivalent ' volumes landing and landing on more or less the same price and in essentially the SAME time taken in numbers of days that it took the first time.
So ALL good in my opinion for the SP to be oscillating and hitting most price points on the spectrum. Especially when overall volumes are thinning and down to about HALF of that which was previously being traded and / or accumulated.
So distribution in my opinion , and with distribution you are always going to get a significant amount of hesitation and / or reservedness on Both the BUY and SELL sides until the base is firmly in place and the new base achieved. In this case the current base is 8.0 -8.1 , with new target base being 10.5 - 11 cents.
Sorry for the long explanation - but just the way my figures are stacking up and supporting my interpretations and opinions....
