Afterpay Valuation, page-1775

  1. 55 Posts.
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    As someone who thinks the stock is vastly overvalued I don't think the moat is its issue. If BNPL becomes a dominant payment method long-term then it's an area where the first mover advantage is significant. It takes time and effort to build the network of merchants to make signing up worthwhile for customers and merchants. Sure Visa or Mastercard could pretty easily add it as a payment option but there's no real reason for them to take on the credit risk and they don't then offer merchants the customer lead benefit. It wouldn't be that easy to disrupt compared to Uber where you can easily take market share from them if you're willing to lose (a lot of) money for a while. Uber's only real moat is that it's willing and able to burn more cash than everyone else and that's not sustainable long-term.

    Afterpay has issues but their moat isn't one of them. The main issue is that with any realistic credit losses their current business model isn't profitable. Do you believe they've uniquely solved the issue of how to lend without incurring increased losses in a recession? I find that unlikely and the other option is they're lying to you. Add on regulatory issues that threaten to put a stop to their entire model and the fact that the current business model with tiny account sizes simply can't scale to the size required to justify the valuation.
 
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