fundamental analysis shows ipl now weaker, page-5

dont get me wrong , its still got decent fundamentals, but the ratios all look much worse post all the acquisitions and dilution

If profit can consistently grow from now on, the ROE, ROIC, ROA n EPS will all look better and better within a couple of years

But the ratios looked unblievable till recently - thats why every1 loved this company . Look at the historic Retuen on Equity and Return on Invested Capital n Return on Assets - - Unbelievable!

Now these ratios have all hit the lower end of what buffet or traditional fundamental analysts expect, and if profit FALLS from now on, that wont be good for all the fundamentals.

This company made great returns on both equity AND the return was great on the debt PLUS the equity

they borrowed money, but the return on those borrowed funds was awesome!

ROE and ROIC looked amazing

But earnings are exposed to fertiliser Prices and exploives which are linked to demand and commodity boom

So earnings in this coy are more volatile thru the business cycle! i.e over the long term business cycle.

this volatility in earnings means this coy isnt as 'safe' as most ppl like to think!

Now that we are in a depressed point of the business cycle lets see what kind of fundanmental numbers we might get for EPS, ROE and ROIC and ROA

It was a great boom stock with amazing figures, but in the bust end of the biz cycle its fundamentals can look pretty weak

i.e if NPAT goes down due to lower demand, thisll affect all the key buffet ratios which are on the edge as we speak due to recent dliutions.

Still a good comapany, but it was a little too hyped up - looks very good in a boom, but looks much weaker in a bust. its coz earnings are heavily linked to volatility in commodity ps and overall demand