Intersuisse Investment Research
Analyst: Perter Russell
3/11/2008
Investment Rationale
IPL both produces and distributes East Coast fertilisers, expanding upstream
after former parent Orica sold its 70% mid 2006. Competitive strengths include
sound strategic planning, integrated production and well-developed financial
management. IPL merged with Dyno Nobel (DXL) mid 2008 to form a fertiliser
and explosives powerhouse. This gives investors exposure to key agribusiness
and resource inputs. The main risk is fertiliser and explosive prices:
having been at record levels, they have dropped back sharply.
Further upside
will come from cost savings after optimising DXL and output growth with the
Moranbah plant in particular.
Events
The share chart reflects global movements in prices of fertiliser and producers
as demand for soft commodities gave way to recessionary concerns.
For IPL in recent months there have been several positive price drivers:
• The acquisition of Dyno Nobel was successfully completed
• A decision was made to build the Moranbah plant, expected to generate
an 18% EBIT return on net assets in year four or 2014
• A share split of 20 for 1 was approved at an EGM on 5 September and
effective from 16 September. This has enhanced share liquidity and
appeal to retail investors. Today a dividend reinvestment plan (“DRP”)
was introduced as foreshadowed by at the EGM
• On 18 September IPL entered into a new three-year syndicated facility of
$1.68bn with its key relationship banks. IPL was confident about the early
refinancing of the balance of its 365-day bridge funding for DXL.
Before the Dyno Nobel acquisition, the interim 1H08 results were strong.
EBITDA gained 163% to $269m. The interim franked dividend was trebled.
The stimulus was DAP prices, which on average doubled to over $730/t –
rising 125% in US$ to US$658/t. IPL continued to show its strong
management and financial control. Working capital is rigorously managed.
Cost savings from its efficiency program Project Tardis reached over $140m.
The $935m ammonium nitrate complex at Moranbah, Queensland, is already
under construction, originally commenced by Dyno Nobel, and expected to be
in beneficial production in the first quarter of calendar 2011.
Impact
• Key variable in profitability is the DAP price. This continued to rise to
US$1,100/t, but has now fallen back over 30%, still higher than a year
ago. We expect strong FY08 results on 17 November, but subdued
guidance although profits and EPS will increase in FY09 with the
developments noted here. Our figures are below consensus.
• We expect IPL to optimise effectively the integration of DXL’s fertiliser and
explosive manufacturing plants.
• Moranbah construction is contracted and the long-term gas supply fixed.
Gearing is quite high post-merger, but FY09 combined EBIT will cover
interest some nine times.
Recommendation Impact
Producing both fertilisers and explosives, IPL is focused on trends that should
continue despite a global slowdown: the needs for food and the development
of China, India and other growth areas. Fertiliser prices have tumbled from
record highs, but so have producers’ share prices including IPL’s, despite
much of its costs being in the cheaper A$. Key DAP, urea, ammonia, sulphur
and potash prices are expected to remain above those of a year ago. While
grain prices have also fallen, global corn and wheat inventories are at low
levels. We believe these cautions are fully reflected in IPL’s price with an
attractive P/E, solid franked dividend and proven management. Current prices
are an opportunity to Buy into a major long-term growth stock.. A leading
‘agricultural’ investment with a positive outlook as Dyno Nobel integration
opens up new production synergies and adds growth in explosives.
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$2.96 |
Change
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Mkt cap ! $5.692B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$2.95 | $2.98 | $2.94 | $11.13M | 3.772M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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3 | 15847 | $2.96 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$2.97 | 8699 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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2 | 9861 | 2.960 |
4 | 125329 | 2.950 |
6 | 104314 | 2.940 |
1 | 20000 | 2.920 |
3 | 8400 | 2.900 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
2.980 | 140655 | 12 |
2.990 | 198708 | 11 |
3.000 | 187082 | 25 |
3.010 | 15100 | 3 |
3.020 | 33480 | 1 |
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