k winter......is the worst yet to come, page-14

interesting little article...

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/droke070104.html

most interesting point about KWaves

Now there comes a point along the cyclical curve, we'll call it the "hard down" phase, in which all the cycles which compose the dominant long-term rhythm are coming down together. That's when you can expect to see crashing stock market prices and a deteriorating economy. But until the "hard down" phase begins (defined as the final 10% of a cycle's duration), you can still be in the declining phase of a long-term cycle and still have a bull market underway depending on which of the shorter-term and intermediate-term cycles are still rising.

In the case of the K-wave, I appeal to one of the great master's of the K-wave, P.Q. Wall, who I recall saying that even in the declining part of the K-wave you can have a strong overall economy. This is because corporate profits are still rising due to low relative values of commodities due to the currents of deflation that accompany K-wave Winter. If we assume a 60-year K-wave, the "hard down" phase or final 10% would be 6 years. So we would look for weakness to set in around 2008 or 2009 based on the 120-year cycle bottom scheduled for 2014. If we presume a 70-year K-wave (which according to expert Ian Gordon is possible), then it could still be a few years away before K-wave Winter begins to exert a dramatic toll on the markets and the economy.