Hi frostie,
It is very understandable that we have loss confidence with the management, especially when we measure management's performance by the performance of the share price.
However, the fault may not be entirely management's. I think I have to bear some of the responsibilty for my own folly. Speaking as someone who is heavily invested in FLC, the mistake I made was to be swept along by the euphoria of MABR making in-roads into China way back earlier. I forgot to take into consideration valuation. For all the milestones achieved in China which are, by themselves, notable, Edison is only forecasting EBITDA of US$2.5m (AUD$5m) for the first time in FY2020.
At EV=MC=$0.20*625m shares=$125m, FLC is trading at 125/5=25X EV/EBITDA. The current S&P's EV/EBITDA is 24X
(https://www.gurufocus.com/term/ev2ebitda/SPGI/EV-to-EBITDA/SP-Global-Inc).
So in hindsight, which is 20/20, I guess I should have entered FLC at the current price of AUD20cts, and not where FLC was trading in late 2017. Pardon me, I am being introspective in this post because I believe the market is always right. The one who makes the mistake is me. Because of that, I try to take away some lessons for every mistake I make. In my mind, my mistake is I got in way too early. Hopefully, I get to make less of such mistakes, become wiser as I get older.
Now, having said the above, thankfully, I don't think my mistake will be too punitive. FLC is making inroads and attaining sustainable EBITDA positive from henceforth. Until I am proven wrong again, I will come out with a new set of learning lessons. Thanks for reading this far.
